True Count

Level Progression Audit

How the level system behaves in practice — normal play simulations, progression curves, and stress testing.

This page documents how the level system performs in practice. It uses real simulation data to show what normal progression looks like for different player types, how long it takes to unlock each dealer table, and what happens under extreme conditions.

For the rules and formulas behind the system, see Player Rank.

XP Formula

XP is computed using a compressed power-law formula:

XP = minimumXP(outcome) + outcomeWeight × bet^0.35 × 1.5

The sub-linear exponent (0.35) means doubling your bet does not double your XP. A 10,000x increase in bet yields only about 12x more XP. This prevents single large bets from causing massive level jumps while still rewarding higher-stakes play.

BetLoss XPWin XPBlackjack XP
5 (Jean-Luc min)51528
250 (Czarita min)134068
5,000 (Jack min)3190155
50,000 (Aunty min)69206345

Normal Progression

Every hand earns XP. Here is what progression looks like for three common player profiles, all starting from Level 1 with 1,000 credits on the Jean-Luc table.

Conservative Player — Minimum Bets

A player who always bets the table minimum (5 credits) on Jean-Luc. Average XP per hand: ~10.7 XP.

MilestoneHandsSessions (~25 hands)Est. Play Time
Level 2~271~9 min
Level 5~1054~35 min
Level 10 (Czarita)~29612~1.6 hr
Level 25 (Jack)~1,17047~6.5 hr
Level 50 (Lady Lux)~3,312133~18.4 hr
Level 100 (Aunty)~9,369375~52 hr

Takeaway: Level 2 in the first session (good hook). Czarita unlock at ~1.6 hours (achievable in a few dedicated sessions). Aunty at ~52 hours (prestige achievement spanning weeks or months). This is a healthy curve for engaged players.

Scaling Player — 10% of Bankroll

A player who bets about 10% of their bankroll each hand. Average XP per hand: ~20.3 XP.

MilestoneHandsSessionsEst. Play Time
Level 2~141~5 min
Level 5~552~18 min
Level 10 (Czarita)~1566~52 min
Level 25 (Jack)~61625~3.4 hr
Level 50 (Lady Lux)~1,74270~9.7 hr
Level 100 (Aunty)~4,926197~27 hr

Takeaway: About 2x faster than min-bettors. Bigger bets are rewarded but not overwhelmingly. Czarita in under an hour, Aunty in ~27 hours.

Level-Up Cadence

How many hands between level-ups, for a min-bet conservative player:

TransitionHandsRatio vs L1→2
L1 → L2271.0x
L10 → L11461.7x
L25 → L26692.6x
L50 → L511023.8x
L99 → L1001405.2x

The cadence ratio (L99 vs L1) is 5.2x — Level 100 takes about 5x longer per level than Level 2, but every session still moves the needle.

Losing Streak

What happens when you lose 20 hands in a row at minimum bet:

  • You earn 5 XP per hand (minimum floor of 3 + compressed bet component of 2)
  • After 20 losses: 100 total XP, still Level 1, bankroll down to 900
  • You can absolutely keep playing — 900 credits is 180 more minimum bets

You Always Earn XP

Even losses earn XP. A losing streak hurts your bankroll but still contributes to your level progression. There is no XP penalty, ever.

Win Streak Bonus in Practice

Consecutive wins trigger an XP multiplier. Here is the real XP earned per hand during a 10-win streak at a 100-credit bet:

Win #StreakMultiplierXP Earned
111.0x30
221.25x37
331.5x45
441.5x45
551.75x52
661.75x52
7–107–102.0x60 each

Total from 10 consecutive wins: 426 XP (~1.4x the base amount).

For comparison, 10 wins with a loss between each one (no streak ever builds) would earn 300 XP from the wins alone. The streak bonus adds ~42% more XP over the same number of wins — meaningful but not game-breaking.

Table Unlock Economics

Each dealer table unlocks at a specific level, and each has its own minimum bet. The question is: when you reach the unlock level, can you actually afford to play there?

TableUnlock LevelXP to UnlockMinimum BetBankroll at UnlockCan Afford?
Jean-Luc1051,000 (starting)Yes
Czarita103,162250~909Yes
Jack2512,5005,000~664No
Lady Lux5035,35525,000~113No
Aunty100100,00050,000Not reached

The Bankroll Gap

Under normal play with house-edge odds, only Czarita is naturally affordable when unlocked. Jack, Lady Lux, and Aunty unlock at levels where the bankroll has eroded well below their minimum bets. Players who want to play at higher tables will need to build their bankroll back up — or purchase a credit pack.

This is by design. The level unlock gives you the right to play at a table, not the guarantee that you can afford it. It creates a natural incentive to either play conservatively to grow your bankroll, or use credit packs to bridge the gap.

XP and Level Reference Table

For reference, here are XP thresholds for notable levels.

LevelXP Required
2283
51,118
103,162
2512,500
5035,355
100100,000

The gap between levels grows as you progress. Going from Level 1 to 2 takes 283 XP. Going from Level 99 to 100 takes about 1,494 XP. This is the scaling curve at work — early levels reward new players quickly, while higher levels require sustained play.


Stress Testing: Debug Panel and Extreme Scenarios

During development, the app includes a debug panel (removed in production builds) that allows testers to set an arbitrary bankroll and level. This section documents what happens when the debug panel creates game states that would be impossible through normal play.

Compressed XP Under Extreme Bets

With the compressed formula, even absurdly large bets produce modest XP gains:

Debug ActionXP EarnedResulting Level
Set bankroll to 1M, bet 50K, lose69Level 1
Set bankroll to 1M, bet 50K, win206Level 1
Set bankroll to 1M, bet 50K, blackjack345Level 2
Set bankroll to 1M, all-in (1M), lose191Level 1
Set bankroll to 1M, all-in (1M), blackjack959Level 4

A single hand can never jump more than about 3-4 levels, even with a million-credit bet. This is a deliberate design choice — progression is tied to sustained play, not a single lucky hand.

Other Debug Edge Cases

All of these were tested and work correctly:

  • High level, low bankroll (Level 100, 1,000 credits): All tables show as unlocked, but the player can only afford Jean-Luc and Czarita. The UI correctly reflects this.
  • Low level, high bankroll (Level 1, 1,000,000 credits): Only Jean-Luc is unlocked, despite the massive bankroll. Table locks are based on level, not credits.
  • Extreme values (Level 200, bankroll 100,000,000): No crashes, no overflows. The formulas handle large numbers correctly.
  • Bankroll of 1: Cannot afford any table's minimum bet. Bet validation correctly prevents play.

Conclusion

The level system is mathematically sound and internally consistent. All 100 level boundaries (1–100) pass round-trip verification. The formulas are monotonic — level never decreases as XP increases — and handle extreme values without overflow. The compressed XP formula ensures progression reflects sustained engagement rather than bet size alone.

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